Embraer ERJ · NYSE

The idea. Every week the government signs contracts for aircraft parts, and we know which company won them. When a company suddenly wins far more than its usual week, a natural question is whether its stock tends to move in the weeks after. We measured that for every company on this site, every week since 2012, and this box reports what we found for weeks that look like the current one.

Outlook is the answer in three words. ▲ Leaning higher means that in past weeks like this one, stocks of this size usually went on to beat the aerospace sector over the following month, and did so often enough and by enough that it is unlikely to be chance. ▼ Leaning lower is the reverse. — No lean means the record shows no consistent move either way, which is the honest answer most weeks and for most of the largest companies.

Flow Score is the current week in words: whether this company's contract flow is unusually strong, normal or weak compared with its own past year; whether it is rising or falling over the last month; and whether the FAA has recently issued directives against its products.

What it is not. A tendency in past data, not a forecast, and not a recommendation. Sample sizes are shown so you can weigh it yourself; a lean built on 400 cases means more than one built on 40. Stocks move for many reasons that have nothing to do with parts contracts. Use this as one input, alongside everything else you know.