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Due for a buy: items the government buys on a rhythm

Ten years of DLA procurement history and federal awards, one stock number at a time. 16,325 items have enough history to measure; 3,125 buy on a regular cycle. Below: the regular ones whose next buy is past the usual window, with the cadence, the last buy, the expected window, whether a solicitation is already open, and whether a seller here stocks it. A rhythm, not a schedule; use it to decide what to quote-ready and what to stock, not as a promise.

How well it works: for regular items, “next buy about one typical gap after the last, give or take 121 days” caught the actual next buy 42% of the time across 15,953 past buys, against 22% for a fixed “one year later” guess. Re-tested nightly.

By supply class: 5330 Packing And Gasket Materials (47) · 4820 Valves, Nonpowered (42) · 4730 Hose, Pipe, Tube, Lubrication, And Railing Fittings (37) · 5340 Hardware, Commercial (35) · 6515 Medical And Surgical Instruments, Equipment, And Supplies (32) · 5935 Connectors, Electrical (27) · 5305 Screws (25) · 5320 Rivets (23) · 5306 Bolts (18) · 5310 Nuts And Washers (17) · 5315 Nails, Machine Keys, And Pins (16) · 5930 Switches (15) · 4720 Hose And Flexible Tubing (13) · 4320 Power And Hand Pumps (13) · 1680 Miscellaneous Aircraft Accessories And Components (12) · 6220 Electric Vehicular Lights And Fixtures (11) · 5365 Bushings, Rings, Shims, And Spacers (11) · 4810 Valves, Powered (11) · 5999 Miscellaneous Electrical And Electronic Components (11) · 6150 Miscellaneous Electric Power And Distribution Equipment (10) · 6505 Drugs And Biologicals (10) · 4330 Centrifugals, Separators, And Pressure And Vacuum Filters (10) · 5985 Antennas, Waveguides, And Related Equipment (10) · 5325 Fastening Devices (10) · 5925 Circuit Breakers (9) · 5998 Electrical And Electronic Assemblies, Boards, Cards, And Associated Hardware (9) · 4710 Pipe, Tube And Rigid Tubing (8) · 3120 Bearings, Plain, Unmounted (8) · 5331 O-Ring (8) · 1560 Airframe Structural Components (8) · 5945 Relays And Solenoids (8) · 6510 Surgical Dressing Materials (7) · 2540 Vehicular Furniture And Accessories (7) · 5905 Resistor (7) · 6140 Batteries, Rechargeable (7) · 6105 Motors, Electrical (6) · 6550 In Vitro Diagnostic Substances, Reagents, Test Kits And Sets (6) · 6530 Hospital Furniture, Equipment, Utensils, And Supplies (6) · 6680 Liquid And Gas Flow, Liquid Level, And Mechanical Motion Measuring Instruments (6) · 3110 Bearings, Antifriction, Unmounted (6) · 5360 Coil, Flat, Leaf, And Wire Springs (6) · 6685 Pressure, Temperature, And Humidity Measuring And Controlling Instruments (6) · 4310 Compressors And Vacuum Pumps (5) · 6145 Wire And Cable, Electrical (5) · 2590 Miscellaneous Vehicular Components (5) · 5355 Knobs And Pointers (5) · 6520 Dental Instruments, Equipment, And Supplies (5) · 3040 Miscellaneous Power Transmission Equipment (5) · 5307 Studs (5) · 7025 Information Technology Input/Output And Storage Devices (5) · 6640 Laboratory Equipment And Supplies (5) · 2530 Vehicular Brake, Steering, Axle, Wheel, And Track Components (4) · 2520 Vehicular Power Transmission Components (4) · 6625 Electrical And Electronic Properties Measuring And Testing Instruments (4) · 6110 Electrical Control Equipment (4) · 5980 Optoelectronic Devices And Associated Hardware (3) · 1730 Aircraft Ground Servicing Equipment (3) · 6135 Batteries, Nonrechargeable (3) · 4930 Lubrication And Fuel Dispensing Equipment (3) · 6230 Electric Portable And Hand Lighting Equipment (3)

Buying events are DIBBS awards and FPDS contract actions on the stock number, with awards fewer than 21 days apart counted once. “Regular” means the gaps between buys vary by less than 60% of their average. The window is the average gap after the last buy, give or take half the gap (at least 45 days). Sellers are PartsAndPlanes listings matched to the NSN. Rebuilt nightly.